The map visualizes the AI-GPR (Geopolitical Risk) index by country. Click any country to see detailed risk data and historical GPR trajectory in the side panels.
Geopolitical crises create trading opportunities: defense stocks, gold, oil, and safe-haven currencies (USD, CHF, JPY) tend to rally during escalations.
The ranking of countries by GPR level identifies current geopolitical hotspots. Watch for: countries rapidly rising in the ranking (emerging crises), and countries at historically extreme levels (potential escalation or resolution).
Cross-reference with commodity exposure maps and COT positioning to identify trading opportunities.
The global GPR trend shows how worldwide geopolitical risk has evolved. Spikes correspond to major events: wars, terrorist attacks, sanctions, military escalations.
For traders, persistent elevated GPR creates a 'risk premium' in commodities and FX. Sharp GPR spikes that quickly revert are trading opportunities (buy the fear). Sustained elevated GPR suggests structural regime change that affects long-term asset allocation.
GPR-Oil specifically tracks geopolitical threats to oil supply and markets. Energy is the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. When GPR-Oil spikes, expect oil price volatility, energy sector outperformance, and potential inflationary pressure. For macro traders, GPR-Oil crossing above historical averages is a signal to overweight energy exposure.
The event type decomposition shows which categories of geopolitical risk are driving the index: military threats, nuclear escalation, terrorism, trade wars, sanctions. Different event types affect different asset classes.
Military threats drive gold and defense stocks. Sanctions affect specific currencies and trade flows. Trade war escalation hits multinational equities and emerging markets.
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The ranking of countries by GPR level identifies current geopolitical hotspots. Watch for: countries rapidly rising in the ranking (emerging crises), and countries at historically extreme levels (potential escalation or resolution).
Cross-reference with commodity exposure maps and COT positioning to identify trading opportunities.