Geopolitical Risk Monitor

See the world through risk.

AI-GPR Index by Caldara, Iacoviello & Tong — AI-powered geopolitical risk measurement from 1960 to present, daily updates. Country-level risk mapping for 120+ economies.

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AI-GPR Index
Military Conflict
M/M
Terrorism
M/M
Oil / Energy Risk
M/M
World Risk Map
GPR Score by Country · Click for details
Click a country
Click a country

The map visualizes the AI-GPR (Geopolitical Risk) index by country. Click any country to see detailed risk data and historical GPR trajectory in the side panels.

Geopolitical crises create trading opportunities: defense stocks, gold, oil, and safe-haven currencies (USD, CHF, JPY) tend to rally during escalations.

Country Risk Grid
Top 50 Countries · Grouped by Region
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The ranking of countries by GPR level identifies current geopolitical hotspots. Watch for: countries rapidly rising in the ranking (emerging crises), and countries at historically extreme levels (potential escalation or resolution).

Cross-reference with commodity exposure maps and COT positioning to identify trading opportunities.

AI-GPR Index History
Monthly · 1960 to Present
AI-GPR
Oil / Energy

The global GPR trend shows how worldwide geopolitical risk has evolved. Spikes correspond to major events: wars, terrorist attacks, sanctions, military escalations.

For traders, persistent elevated GPR creates a 'risk premium' in commodities and FX. Sharp GPR spikes that quickly revert are trading opportunities (buy the fear). Sustained elevated GPR suggests structural regime change that affects long-term asset allocation.

GPR-Oil specifically tracks geopolitical threats to oil supply and markets. Energy is the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. When GPR-Oil spikes, expect oil price volatility, energy sector outperformance, and potential inflationary pressure. For macro traders, GPR-Oil crossing above historical averages is a signal to overweight energy exposure.

Daily GPR — Last 12 Months
Daily Resolution · AI-GPR Index

The event type decomposition shows which categories of geopolitical risk are driving the index: military threats, nuclear escalation, terrorism, trade wars, sanctions. Different event types affect different asset classes.

Military threats drive gold and defense stocks. Sanctions affect specific currencies and trade flows. Trade war escalation hits multinational equities and emerging markets.

Top Risk Countries
Ranked by GPR Score
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The ranking of countries by GPR level identifies current geopolitical hotspots. Watch for: countries rapidly rising in the ranking (emerging crises), and countries at historically extreme levels (potential escalation or resolution).

Cross-reference with commodity exposure maps and COT positioning to identify trading opportunities.

Disclaimer

The information, data visualizations, and analytical tools provided on this website are intended strictly for informational, educational, and research purposes. Vilasio provides financial market analytics designed to help users better understand market structure, institutional positioning, and statistical patterns in financial markets. The content available on this platform does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or recommendations to buy or sell financial instruments.

Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of capital. Users are solely responsible for their own financial and trading decisions and should conduct their own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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