This chart tracks the historical net positioning (longs minus shorts) of Big Players (blue) and Commercials (gold). The COT Report is a directional edge with a one-week delay — it shows what major institutions were doing, not what they will do.
Key signals: when BP net position reaches extreme levels and begins to reverse, it often precedes major price moves. Commercials (hedgers) typically move inversely to BP — they are natural counterparties. Divergence between BP direction and price direction is a powerful signal.
Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts. Rising OI alongside rising prices confirms a strong trend (new money entering). Rising OI with falling prices suggests aggressive short selling. Falling OI during a price move indicates position liquidation, not new conviction — the move may be exhausting.
The spread between Big Players and Commercials net positions. When this spread widens (positive), BP are increasingly bullish relative to hedgers. When it narrows or inverts, the two groups are converging — often a sign of trend exhaustion. Extreme spread values historically precede major reversals.
The Z-Score measures how many standard deviations the current net position is from its historical mean. Values above +2.0 indicate positioning is significantly above average — historically, this precedes bearish reversals as the market is "crowded." Values below -2.0 indicate extreme bearish positioning — a contrarian bullish signal.
The Z-Score is the most reliable signal when combined with price action confirmation. Big Players (non-commercial speculators) and Commercials (dealers and hedgers) typically hold opposite net positions in the same market.
Capital flows show where institutional money is moving across sectors. The regime indicator (RISK-ON / OFF / ROTATION) is determined by the pattern of flows. In RISK-ON, money flows into equities and energy. In RISK-OFF, money flows into rates (bonds) and metals (gold). ROTATION means mixed flows — sectors are being reshuffled without clear directional conviction.
The Sankey diagram visualizes the magnitude and direction of flows between sectors. Click on any sector name to drill down into individual market flows within that category.